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EconomicsOddsas of Jul 11, 17:00 UTC

July Fed funds decision

DWDiane Whitfield · Macro & Rates Editor Resolves Jul 29, 2026Total volume $20.4M2 platforms

Price history

Implied probability over time
Outcome
Side
Platforms (max 3)
HyperliquidPolymarket
73%83%93%4 Jul6 Jul7 Jul8 Jul10 Jul11 Jul

Where to back No change

Every independent platform that prices this outcome, best price after fees first. The buttons are affiliate links — we may earn a commission if you sign up, and it never changes the odds you see or what you pay.

1
Hyperliquid4.6Best odds
On-chain markets on a high-speed L1
No change78%no entry fee
Volume—
Min · feesNone · No platform
Trade
2
Polymarket5.0
The largest on-chain prediction market
No change79%no entry fee
Volume$13.1M
Min · feesNone · No trading
Trade

Ranked by the effective price after each platform's own entry fee. Fees shown are each platform's own and may change — we don't set or control them. Betting exchanges (e.g. Matchbook, Smarkets) instead charge commission on winnings, so they stay at their raw price here.

Implied probability by platform

Lowest raw implied price per outcome in gold · click a row
OutcomeHyperliquid4.6Polymarket5.0
No change78%79%
Rate cut1%1%
Rate hike24%22%

These are raw implied probabilities; gold marks the lowest raw price. The Best odds above ranks by the price after each platform's entry fee, so the best place to trade can differ from the lowest raw number here.