News and market spotlights.
Short pieces written from the odds we track, plus deep-dives on the biggest markets that only one platform prices.
News
Bloomberg Flagged 34,000 Suspicious Polymarket Trades
The scrutiny that comes with being the most consistently listed venue on our board.
NewsGavin Newsom's 2028 Odds Are Climbing. Here's the Number.
Up from about 15% a week ago, and four independent platforms now agree.
SpotlightEconomics Only on Kalshi
More tech layoffs in 2026 than in 2025?
92%
implied probability
$31.5M
SpotlightPolitics Only on Polymarket
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
14%
implied probability
$62.6M
SpotlightPolitics Only on Kalshi
Will the Citrini scenario happen?
17%
implied probability
$25.9M
SpotlightPolitics Only on Gemini
Which party will win the U.S. House?
49%
implied probability
$262K
SpotlightPolitics Only on Polymarket
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
7%
implied probability
$25.3M
SpotlightSports Only on Gemini
LeBron James Next Team
45%
implied probability
$237K
SpotlightCrypto Only on Gemini
BTC price on August 31
98%
implied probability
$212K
SpotlightPolitics Only on Gemini
Will crypto market structure legislation become law?
50%
implied probability
$205K
SpotlightPolitics Only on Polymarket
Putin out as President of Russia by...?
13%
implied probability
$19.7M
SpotlightPolitics Only on Polymarket
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by...?
0%
implied probability
$17.3M
SpotlightSports Only on Gemini
TOUR Championship Top 10 Finish
88%
implied probability
$167K
SpotlightCrypto Only on Gemini
ZEC price on August 31
95%
implied probability
$163K
SpotlightCrypto Only on Kalshi
Will Bitcoin be above $200k by 2027?
4%
implied probability
$8.0M
SpotlightEconomics Only on Gemini
Which companies will the US take a stake in before 2027?
88%
implied probability
$156K
SpotlightEconomics Only on Kalshi
Fed decision in Sep 2026?
53%
implied probability
$7.6M
SpotlightSports Only on Kalshi
2027 Pro Basketball Champion
24%
implied probability
$7.4M
SpotlightEconomics Only on Gemini
Best AI at the end of 2026?
70%
implied probability
$140K
SpotlightEconomics Only on Polymarket
Xi Jinping out before 2027?
4%
implied probability
$12.8M
SpotlightSports Only on Gemini
Pro Baseball Champion
32%
implied probability
$115K
SpotlightCrypto Only on Polymarket
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
14%
implied probability
$11.4M
SpotlightCrypto Only on Gemini
XRP price on August 31
97%
implied probability
$109K
SpotlightPolitics Only on Polymarket
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?
7%
implied probability
$10.6M
SpotlightEconomics Only on Gemini
When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal?
31%
implied probability
$100K