What is a prediction market?
A prediction market lets you buy and sell contracts tied to the outcome of a real-world event — an election, a football match, a Fed rate decision. Each contract settles at a fixed amount (usually $1) if the outcome happens, and $0 if it doesn’t.
Because real money is on the line, the price of a contract becomes a live, crowd-sourced estimate of probability — and it updates the instant new information arrives. That single number is what this whole site lines up across venues.
Reading the price as a forecast
On a binary (Yes/No) market the price in cents is the implied probability in percent: 38¢ means the market prices a 38% chance. The Yes and No prices add up to roughly 100¢ — the small gap is the spread, the venue’s cut for matching buyers and sellers.
This is often a sharper forecast than a pundit’s: it aggregates the money-weighted opinion of everyone trading, and people think more carefully when their own cash is at stake.
A price is a probability, not a promise. A 70% favourite still loses roughly three times in ten.
How a payout works
Buy “Yes” at 38¢. If the event resolves Yes you receive $1 — a 62¢ profit per contract. If it resolves No you lose the 38¢ you paid. “No” shares are the mirror image: you’d pay 62¢ to win the same $1.
Your maximum loss is always what you paid and your maximum gain is the gap to $1. That fixed, known-in-advance risk is what makes prediction markets easier to reason about than open-ended bets or parlays.
Why the same contract has different prices
The identical contract — “Will X happen?” — often trades at different prices on different venues at the same moment, because each has its own pool of traders and depth of liquidity. One venue might say 38¢ while another says 44¢ for the very same outcome.
Buying the cheapest price for the side you want is the simplest, most durable edge in the whole space: the same $1 payout for less money down, and that gap compounds over hundreds of trades. Spotting it is exactly what our comparison pages do for you.
Place your first position — safely
Start small, on a market you genuinely understand, and treat the first few trades as tuition rather than income.
- Pick an event you follow and open its compare page here.
- Check which venue has the best (lowest) price for the side you want to back.
- Open and fund an account there — note the minimum deposit, the fees, and whether it’s available in your region.
- Size the position so a total loss wouldn’t bother you. Never stake money you need.
- Write down the probability you thought was right, so you can check your calibration later.
New to risking real cash? Practise on a play-money venue like Manifold first — identical mechanics, zero downside.