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EconomicsOddsas of Jul 20, 04:00 UTC

Fed decision in October

DWDiane Whitfield · Macro & Rates Editor Resolves Oct 28, 2026Total volume $153K2 platforms

Price history

Implied probability over time
Outcome
Side
Platforms (max 3)
PascalPolymarket
57%65%72%13 Jul14 Jul15 Jul17 Jul18 Jul20 Jul

Where to back No change

Every independent platform that prices this outcome, best price after fees first. The buttons are affiliate links — we may earn a commission if you sign up, and it never changes the odds you see or what you pay.

1
Pascal4.2Best odds
Non-custodial order-book prediction markets on Solana
No change61%no entry fee
Volume—
Min · feesNone · Order-book taker
Trade
2
Polymarket5.0
The largest on-chain prediction market
No change61%no entry fee
Volume$45K
Min · feesNone · No trading
Trade

Ranked by the effective price after each platform's own entry fee. Fees shown are each platform's own and may change — we don't set or control them. Betting exchanges (e.g. Matchbook, Smarkets) instead charge commission on winnings, so they stay at their raw price here.

Implied probability by platform

Lowest raw implied price per outcome in gold · click a row
OutcomePascal4.2Polymarket5.0
No change61%61%
Rate cut12%12%
Rate hike21%21%

These are raw implied probabilities; gold marks the lowest raw price. The Best odds above ranks by the price after each platform's entry fee, so the best place to trade can differ from the lowest raw number here.