PoliticsOddsas of Jul 11, 17:00 UTC

2028 Democratic Nominee for President?

MHMarcus Halloran · Politics & Elections Editor Resolves Nov 10, 2028Total volume $26.4M2 platforms

Price history

Implied probability over time

Outcome

Side

Platforms (max 3)

PolymarketSmarkets

Where to back Gavin Newsom

Every independent platform that prices this outcome, best price after fees first. The buttons are affiliate links — we may earn a commission if you sign up, and it never changes the odds you see or what you pay.

Polymarket5.0Best odds

The largest on-chain prediction market

Gavin Newsom19%no entry fee

Volume$26.4M

Min · feesNone · No trading

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Smarkets4.5

Low-commission UK exchange

Gavin Newsom24%no entry fee · commission on winnings

Volume—

Min · fees£10 · 2% commission

Trade

Ranked by the effective price after each platform's own entry fee. Fees shown are each platform's own and may change — we don't set or control them. Betting exchanges (e.g. Matchbook, Smarkets) instead charge commission on winnings, so they stay at their raw price here.

Implied probability by platform

Lowest raw implied price per outcome in gold · click a row

Outcome	Polymarket5.0	Smarkets4.5
Gavin Newsom	19%	24%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez	14%	12%
Jon Ossoff	10%	8%
Josh Shapiro	5%	5%
Pete Buttigieg	5%	9%
Rahm Emanuel	2%	1%
Andy Beshear	2%	7%
J.B. Pritzker	1%	5%
Mark Kelly	1%	9%
Wes Moore	1%	3%
Kamala Harris	7%	6%
Stephen A Smith	1%	6%

These are raw implied probabilities; gold marks the lowest raw price. The Best odds above ranks by the price after each platform's entry fee, so the best place to trade can differ from the lowest raw number here.