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PoliticsOddsas of Aug 29, 15:00 UTC

Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028

MHMarcus Halloran · Politics & Elections Editor Resolves Nov 8, 2028Total volume $62.4M5 platforms

Price history

Implied probability over time
Outcome
Side
Platforms (max 3)
GeminiKalshiPolymarket
15%20%25%22 Aug24 Aug25 Aug26 Aug28 Aug29 Aug

Where to back Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

Every independent platform that prices this outcome, best price after fees first. The buttons are affiliate links. We may earn a commission if you sign up, and it never changes the odds you see or what you pay.

1
Kalshi4.9Best odds
The first CFTC-regulated US event exchange
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortezafter fees17%16% price + 0.9% entry fee
Volume$8.8M
Min · feesNone · Per-contract trading
Trade
2
Gemini4.6
Event markets from the Gemini exchange
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortezafter fees18%18% price + 0.7% entry fee
Volume$139K
Min · feesNone · Per-contract trading
Trade
3
Polymarket5.0
The largest on-chain prediction market
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez19%no entry fee
Volume$15.1M
Min · feesNone · No trading
Trade
4
Limitless4.4
On-chain markets on Base
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez19%no entry fee
Volume$743
Min · feesNone · No platform
Trade
5
Smarkets4.5
Low-commission UK exchange
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez20%no entry fee · commission on winnings
Volume—
Min · fees£10 · 2% commission
Trade

Ranked by the effective price after each platform's own entry fee. Fees shown are each platform's own and may change. We don't set or control them. Betting exchanges (e.g. Matchbook, Smarkets) instead charge commission on winnings, so they stay at their raw price here.

Implied probability by platform

Lowest raw implied price per outcome in gold · click a row
OutcomeGemini4.6Kalshi4.9Limitless4.4Polymarket5.0Smarkets4.5
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez18%16%19%19%20%
Gavin Newsom13%14%14%14%19%
Kamala Harris9%8%8%8%7%
Jon Ossoff17%17%—16%15%
Pete Buttigieg6%5%6%6%6%
Josh Shapiro6%5%5%5%3%
Andy Beshear3%4%2%2%7%
J.B. Pritzker2%2%—1%5%
Gretchen Whitmer2%1%—1%5%
Mark Kelly5%5%—3%3%
Wes Moore3%3%—1%3%
Ro Khanna—2%—2%2%
James Talarico—2%—2%—
Michelle Obama—1%—1%1%
Rahm Emanuel4%3%—2%1%
Mark Cuban—1%—1%—

These are raw implied probabilities; gold marks the lowest raw price. The Best odds above ranks by the price after each platform's entry fee, so the best place to trade can differ from the lowest raw number here.

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