Predictions Network
Fundamentals · 4 min read

How to read odds and implied probability

Turn prices into probabilities, spot when two platforms disagree, and understand what “best odds” really means.

Price is probability

On a binary market, the price of a “Yes” share in cents equals the market’s implied probability in percent. 70¢ ≈ 70%. The “Yes” and “No” prices should sum to roughly 100¢; any gap is the spread.

38¢ = 38%0%impossible ← → certain100%
Price is just probability in disguise — a contract at 38¢ means the crowd prices a 38% chance.

Best odds = best price

When you want to back an outcome, the best odds are the lowest price — you pay less for the same $1 payout. That’s the number we highlight in gold across every comparison.

For a multi-outcome market, we compare each outcome row by row and flag the cheapest venue for each.

Gemini44¢Polymarket41¢Kalshi38¢ ✓ best odds
The same $1 payout costs less on one venue than another. Buying the cheapest — the “best odds” — is a structural edge.

When platforms disagree

If one venue prices an event at 44% and another at 38%, either the market is still finding consensus or one venue has thinner liquidity. Disagreement is exactly where attentive traders find an edge.

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