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PoliticsOddsas of Jul 11, 17:00 UTC

US Presidential Election 2028

MHMarcus Halloran · Politics & Elections Editor Resolves Nov 7, 2028Total volume $34.8M3 platforms

Price history

Implied probability over time
Outcome
Side
Platforms (max 3)
MatchbookPolymarketSmarkets
15%50%85%4 Jul6 Jul7 Jul8 Jul10 Jul11 Jul

Where to back JD Vance

Every independent platform that prices this outcome, best price after fees first. The buttons are affiliate links — we may earn a commission if you sign up, and it never changes the odds you see or what you pay.

1
Matchbook4.5Best odds
Low-commission betting exchange
JD Vance18%no entry fee · commission on winnings
Volume€9K
Min · fees£10 · 2% commission
Trade
2
Smarkets4.5
Low-commission UK exchange
JD Vance18%no entry fee · commission on winnings
Volume—
Min · fees£10 · 2% commission
Trade
3
Polymarket5.0
The largest on-chain prediction market
JD Vance20%no entry fee
Volume$14.6M
Min · feesNone · No trading
Trade

Ranked by the effective price after each platform's own entry fee. Fees shown are each platform's own and may change — we don't set or control them. Betting exchanges (e.g. Matchbook, Smarkets) instead charge commission on winnings, so they stay at their raw price here.

Implied probability by platform

Lowest raw implied price per outcome in gold · click a row
OutcomeMatchbook4.5Polymarket5.0Smarkets4.5
JD Vance18%20%18%
Gavin Newsom14%12%14%
Marco Rubio11%14%11%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez8%8%10%
Jon Ossoff8%7%6%
Tucker Carlson3%2%4%
Pete Buttigieg3%2%3%
Ron DeSantis3%1%2%
Thomas Massie3%1%2%
Kamala Harris3%4%3%
Josh Shapiro2%3%2%
Donald Trump Jr.—1%2%
Ivanka Trump2%—3%
Jamie Dimon2%1%—
Glenn Youngkin—1%1%
Greg Abbott2%1%—

These are raw implied probabilities; gold marks the lowest raw price. The Best odds above ranks by the price after each platform's entry fee, so the best place to trade can differ from the lowest raw number here.