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PoliticsOddsas of Jul 11, 17:00 UTC

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028

MHMarcus Halloran · Politics & Elections Editor Resolves Nov 8, 2028Total volume $18.6M2 platforms

Price history

Implied probability over time
Outcome
Side
Platforms (max 3)
PolymarketSmarkets
1%4%6%4 Jul6 Jul7 Jul8 Jul10 Jul11 Jul

Where to back Donald Trump Jr.

Every independent platform that prices this outcome, best price after fees first. The buttons are affiliate links — we may earn a commission if you sign up, and it never changes the odds you see or what you pay.

1
Polymarket5.0Best odds
The largest on-chain prediction market
Donald Trump Jr.1%no entry fee
Volume$9.2M
Min · feesNone · No trading
Trade
2
Smarkets4.5
Low-commission UK exchange
Donald Trump Jr.5%no entry fee · commission on winnings
Volume—
Min · fees£10 · 2% commission
Trade

Ranked by the effective price after each platform's own entry fee. Fees shown are each platform's own and may change — we don't set or control them. Betting exchanges (e.g. Matchbook, Smarkets) instead charge commission on winnings, so they stay at their raw price here.

Implied probability by platform

Lowest raw implied price per outcome in gold · click a row
OutcomePolymarket5.0Smarkets4.5
Donald Trump Jr.1%5%
Tucker Carlson3%8%
Marco Rubio26%27%
J.D. Vance41%39%
Ron DeSantis2%4%
Glenn Youngkin1%1%
Marjorie Taylor Greene1%2%
Ivanka Trump1%2%
Brian Kemp1%0%
Ted Cruz1%1%
Tulsi Gabbard1%0%
Nikki Haley1%1%

These are raw implied probabilities; gold marks the lowest raw price. The Best odds above ranks by the price after each platform's entry fee, so the best place to trade can differ from the lowest raw number here.