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PoliticsPre-game oddsevent concluded

Next Prime Minister

MHMarcus Halloran · Politics & Elections Editor Resolves Aug 15, 2029Total volume $271K3 platforms

Price history

Implied probability over time
Outcome
Side
Platforms (max 3)
KalshiSmarkets
19%23%26%14 Sept15 Sept17 Sept18 Sept19 Sept21 Sept

Where to back Kemi Badenoch

Every independent platform that prices this outcome, best price after fees first. The buttons are affiliate links. We may earn a commission if you sign up, and it never changes the odds you see or what you pay.

1
Smarkets4.5
Low-commission UK exchange
Kemi Badenoch20%no entry fee · commission on winnings
Volume—
Min · fees£10 · 2% commission
Market closed

Ranked by the effective price after each platform's own entry fee. Fees shown are each platform's own and may change. We don't set or control them. Betting exchanges (e.g. Matchbook, Smarkets) instead charge commission on winnings, so they stay at their raw price here.

Implied probability by platform

Lowest tradable raw price per outcome in gold · click a row
OutcomeKalshi4.9Matchbook4.5Smarkets4.5
Kemi Badenoch——20%
Andy Burnham———
Catherine West———
Nigel Farage——15%
Robert Jenrick———
Angela Rayner——7%
Rupert Lowe——2%
Ed Miliband——2%
Sadiq Khan——1%
Shabana Mahmood——1%
James Cleverly——1%

These are raw implied probabilities; gold marks the lowest raw price we can confirm is tradable. A price on a book too wide to trade is shown, but never marked. The Best odds above ranks by the price after each platform's entry fee, so the best place to trade can differ from the lowest raw number here.

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