Marcus Halloran

Marcus has spent the better part of a decade watching elections get called — first on a newspaper politics desk, then for a polling outfit that kept getting asked why the betting markets moved before the polls did. That question is more or less his beat now. He writes about where prediction markets and the campaign trail meet: which contracts are pricing in a result the surveys haven't caught up to yet, and which ones are just noise. He's covered US presidential cycles, a couple of messy primaries, and more down-ballot races than he'd care to count.