EconomicsOddsas of Jul 20, 04:00 UTC

Fed decision in September

DWDiane Whitfield · Macro & Rates Editor Resolves Sep 16, 2026Total volume $1.6M2 platforms

Price history

Implied probability over time

Outcome

Side

Platforms (max 3)

PascalPolymarket

Where to back No change

Every independent platform that prices this outcome, best price after fees first. The buttons are affiliate links — we may earn a commission if you sign up, and it never changes the odds you see or what you pay.

Pascal4.2Best odds

Non-custodial order-book prediction markets on Solana

No change59%no entry fee

Volume—

Min · feesNone · Order-book taker

Trade

Polymarket5.0

The largest on-chain prediction market

No change59%no entry fee

Volume$773K

Min · feesNone · No trading

Trade

Ranked by the effective price after each platform's own entry fee. Fees shown are each platform's own and may change — we don't set or control them. Betting exchanges (e.g. Matchbook, Smarkets) instead charge commission on winnings, so they stay at their raw price here.

Implied probability by platform

Lowest raw implied price per outcome in gold · click a row

Outcome	PPascal4.2	Polymarket5.0
No change	59%	59%
Rate cut	5%	5%
Rate hike	38%	38%

These are raw implied probabilities; gold marks the lowest raw price. The Best odds above ranks by the price after each platform's entry fee, so the best place to trade can differ from the lowest raw number here.