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PoliticsOddsas of Jul 14, 02:00 UTC

US Presidential Election 2028

MHMarcus Halloran · Politics & Elections Editor Resolves Nov 7, 2028Total volume $37.5M4 platforms

Price history

Implied probability over time
Outcome
Side
Platforms (max 3)
GeminiKalshiPolymarket
14%18%21%7 Jul8 Jul9 Jul11 Jul12 Jul14 Jul

Where to back JD Vance

Every independent platform that prices this outcome, best price after fees first. The buttons are affiliate links — we may earn a commission if you sign up, and it never changes the odds you see or what you pay.

1
Gemini4.6Best odds
Event markets from the Gemini exchange
JD Vanceafter fees18%18% price + 0.7% entry fee
Volume$48K
Min · feesNone · Per-contract trading
Trade
2
Kalshi4.9
The first CFTC-regulated US event exchange
JD Vanceafter fees19%18% price + 1.0% entry fee
Volume$3.2M
Min · feesNone · Per-contract trading
Trade
3
Polymarket5.0
The largest on-chain prediction market
JD Vance20%no entry fee
Volume$14.6M
Min · feesNone · No trading
Trade
4
PredictIt3.5
US political prediction market
JD Vance22%no entry fee · withdrawal/profit fee
Volume—
Min · feesNone · 5% on
Trade

Ranked by the effective price after each platform's own entry fee. Fees shown are each platform's own and may change — we don't set or control them. Betting exchanges (e.g. Matchbook, Smarkets) instead charge commission on winnings, so they stay at their raw price here.

Implied probability by platform

Lowest raw implied price per outcome in gold · click a row
OutcomeGemini4.6Kalshi4.9Polymarket5.0PredictIt3.5
JD Vance18%18%20%22%
Gavin Newsom12%11%12%16%
Marco Rubio17%17%14%17%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez8%8%8%9%
Jon Ossoff10%10%7%8%
Donald Trump3%2%1%1%
Andy Beshear3%2%1%2%
JB Pritzker—1%—1%
Ron DeSantis—5%2%—
Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson3%—2%—
Tulsi Gabbard——1%1%
Tucker Carlson—2%2%—
Pete Buttigieg3%3%2%4%
Kamala Harris4%5%5%5%
Thomas Massie—1%1%—
Josh Shapiro3%3%3%5%
Donald Trump Jr.—1%1%—
Wes Moore—1%1%—
James Talarico—1%1%—

These are raw implied probabilities; gold marks the lowest raw price. The Best odds above ranks by the price after each platform's entry fee, so the best place to trade can differ from the lowest raw number here.