Predictions Network
Showing the 2 platforms available in the United States. See the global comparison →
PoliticsOddsas of Aug 29, 19:00 UTC

Who will be Trump's next Secretary of Labor?

Price history

Implied probability over time
Outcome
Side
Platforms (max 3)
GeminiKalshi
88%93%98%22 Aug24 Aug25 Aug27 Aug28 Aug29 Aug

Where to back Keith Sonderling

Every independent platform that prices this outcome, best price after fees first. The buttons are affiliate links. We may earn a commission if you sign up, and it never changes the odds you see or what you pay.

1
Gemini4.6Best odds
Event markets from the Gemini exchange
Keith Sonderlingafter fees90%90% price + 0.4% entry fee
Volume$27K
Min · feesNone · Per-contract trading
2
Kalshi4.9
The first CFTC-regulated US event exchange
Keith Sonderlingafter fees93%92% price + 0.5% entry fee
Volume$49K
Min · feesNone · Per-contract trading

Ranked by the effective price after each platform's own entry fee. Fees shown are each platform's own and may change. We don't set or control them. Betting exchanges (e.g. Matchbook, Smarkets) instead charge commission on winnings, so they stay at their raw price here.

Implied probability by platform

Lowest raw implied price per outcome in gold · click a row
OutcomeGemini4.6Kalshi4.9
Keith Sonderling90%92%
Bryan Slater2%4%
Andrew Puzder4%4%
Johnny C. Taylor Jr.2%2%
Brandon Williams2%2%
Ron DeSantis3%2%
Riley Moore4%2%
Patrick Pizzella3%1%
Jonathan Berry2%1%
Glenn Youngkin2%1%

These are raw implied probabilities; gold marks the lowest raw price. The Best odds above ranks by the price after each platform's entry fee, so the best place to trade can differ from the lowest raw number here.