PoliticsOddsas of Jul 14, 02:00 UTC

2028 Democratic Nominee for President?

MHMarcus Halloran · Politics & Elections Editor Resolves Nov 10, 2028Total volume $34.1M4 platforms

Price history

Implied probability over time

Outcome

Side

Platforms (max 3)

GeminiKalshiPolymarket

Where to back Gavin Newsom

Every independent platform that prices this outcome, best price after fees first. The buttons are affiliate links — we may earn a commission if you sign up, and it never changes the odds you see or what you pay.

Polymarket5.0Best odds

The largest on-chain prediction market

Gavin Newsom20%no entry fee

Volume$26.4M

Min · feesNone · No trading

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Gemini4.6

Event markets from the Gemini exchange

Gavin Newsomafter fees21%21% price + 0.8% entry fee

Volume$35K

Min · feesNone · Per-contract trading

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Kalshi4.9

The first CFTC-regulated US event exchange

Gavin Newsomafter fees21%20% price + 1.1% entry fee

Volume$7.6M

Min · feesNone · Per-contract trading

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PredictIt3.5

US political prediction market

Gavin Newsom21%no entry fee · withdrawal/profit fee

Volume—

Min · feesNone · 5% on

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Ranked by the effective price after each platform's own entry fee. Fees shown are each platform's own and may change — we don't set or control them. Betting exchanges (e.g. Matchbook, Smarkets) instead charge commission on winnings, so they stay at their raw price here.

Implied probability by platform

Lowest raw implied price per outcome in gold · click a row

Outcome	Gemini4.6	Kalshi4.9	Polymarket5.0	PredictIt3.5
Gavin Newsom	21%	20%	20%	21%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez	16%	16%	15%	12%
Jon Ossoff	14%	14%	12%	16%
Kamala Harris	8%	8%	7%	11%
Josh Shapiro	5%	5%	5%	6%
Pete Buttigieg	5%	5%	5%	5%
Rahm Emanuel	5%	6%	2%	4%
Andy Beshear	4%	4%	2%	4%
Gretchen Whitmer	6%	1%	—	1%
Ro Khanna	—	3%	2%	4%
J.B. Pritzker	3%	3%	1%	3%
Mark Kelly	3%	3%	1%	4%
Wes Moore	3%	3%	1%	2%
Stephen A Smith	—	—	1%	1%
Jon Stewart	—	2%	2%	—
James Talarico	—	1%	1%	—
Michelle Obama	—	1%	1%	—
Cory Booker	—	1%	1%	1%
Ruben Gallego	—	1%	—	1%
Mark Cuban	—	1%	1%	—

These are raw implied probabilities; gold marks the lowest raw price. The Best odds above ranks by the price after each platform's entry fee, so the best place to trade can differ from the lowest raw number here.