No Cross-Platform Disagreement Story Today. Here's Why.

Our widest tracked gap today, as of August 7 at 16:01 UTC, sits on the Romania prime minister market. Polymarket has Delia Velculescu at 1%. Kalshi has her at 36%. That is a 35 point spread, and it is the largest number our board produced all day. It does not run.

What stopped it

The event's listed resolution date is a placeholder nineteen years out. Its resolution proxy carries a timestamp in the past, on a market still marked upcoming. Two venues pricing the same question 35 points apart is a story worth writing. Two venues our own data cannot confirm are pricing the same question at all is a defect in this board, and writing it up as the first thing would hand readers a number that never meant what it looked like. So the piece stops here.

The bar a gap has to clear

Fifteen points is the threshold. Under it, a spread sits inside the range that ordinary fee differences and an hour of stale quotes can open on their own, and the article would be describing noise at length. Our snapshot job writes one price per outcome, per platform, per hour. It skips any quote we have not re-ingested in twelve hours, so a frozen feed leaves a visible gap in a chart instead of a flat line pretending to be a live price.

A page also publishes here only when at least two distinct exchange families price the same event. Families, never brands. PredictStreet mirrors the Matchbook exchange feed, so a market listed on both still counts once, and a venue can never be compared against its own reflection. Twelve venues sit in the tracked set. The Romania market drew prices from two of them, which is the floor, and a two-venue comparison with a data conflict on one side has nothing left in it to compare.

What the rest of the board says

Ten gaps are listed today, from 35 points down to 3. One cleared the threshold and has just been disqualified. The next four are all real, and all of them fall short.

The 2028 US Presidential Election sits at 8 points on $735.8M traded. The next Israeli prime minister market sits at 9 points on $31.5M. The 2028 Democratic nominee field sits at 6 points on $1.4B, which makes it the deepest market on the board and the tightest of those three. Trump's approval rating gap is wider, at 10 points. It also carries $104K of volume, four orders of magnitude under the nominee market, and a two-venue spread on volume that thin is a number we decline to build an article around.

Three of those four are single digits. None of them is close to fifteen.

Where these numbers live

Every gap named above has a page. The full ranked list is on the spreads board, and each market's own comparison page carries the per-venue prices quoted here, hour by hour, for the last seven days.

Prices are shown as each venue quotes them. No de-vig, no fair-value adjustment, nothing normalised into a house number, so what you read is what you would trade against. Fee treatment is the part that moves a ranking. Polymarket takes no entry fee. Kalshi takes 1% on entry, and the board applies that before it calls any price the lowest one.

Two more filters, worth naming

Play-money venues are quoted on our board and are never allowed to win a best-price label. Manifold prices a good share of the markets listed above. None of its numbers can take the lowest-price tag from a real-money venue, and none of them can open a gap we would write a disagreement story around.

Geo availability cuts the same way. A venue a reader cannot legally reach is hidden on that reader's version of a page rather than greyed out with an apology, so a spread standing partly on an unreachable venue is not a spread that reader could have acted on anyway.

What survives both filters is today's ten gaps, standing on real-money prices from venues a reader can actually open an account with. The widest of the ten still failed on its own data.

No disagreement story publishes today. The run ledger records that as a no_run, with the numbers above attached, so a quiet day and a silent crash never look the same at nine in the morning. The Newsom piece covers what today's board did produce.