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PoliticsOddsas of Sep 17, 17:00 UTC

Who Will Control The Senate? - USA 2026 Midterm Elections

MHMarcus Halloran · Politics & Elections Editor Resolves Nov 3, 2026Total volume —3 platforms

Price history

Implied probability over time
Outcome
Side
Platforms (max 3)
LimitlessMatchbookSmarkets
49%70%91%10 Sept12 Sept13 Sept14 Sept16 Sept17 Sept

Where to back Democratic Party

Every independent platform that prices this outcome, best price after fees first. The buttons are affiliate links. We may earn a commission if you sign up, and it never changes the odds you see or what you pay.

1
Smarkets4.5Conflicting markets
Low-commission UK exchange
Democratic Party85%no entry fee · commission on winnings
Volume—
Min · fees£10 · 2% commission
Trade
2
Matchbook4.5Conflicting markets
Low-commission betting exchange
Democratic Party88%no entry fee · commission on winnings
Volume€302
Min · fees£10 · 2% commission
Trade
3
Limitless4.4Best odds
On-chain markets on Base
Democratic Party97%no entry fee
Volume$0
Min · feesNone · No platform
Trade

Ranked by the effective price after each platform's own entry fee. Fees shown are each platform's own and may change. We don't set or control them. Betting exchanges (e.g. Matchbook, Smarkets) instead charge commission on winnings, so they stay at their raw price here.

Implied probability by platform

Lowest tradable raw price per outcome in gold · click a row
OutcomeLimitless4.4Matchbook4.5Smarkets4.5
Democratic Party97%88%⁠⚠85%⁠⚠
Republican Party2%13%⁠⚠13%⁠⚠

These are raw implied probabilities; gold marks the lowest raw price we can confirm is tradable. A price on a book too wide to trade is shown, but never marked. The Best odds above ranks by the price after each platform's entry fee, so the best place to trade can differ from the lowest raw number here.

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