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PoliticsOddsas of Jul 11, 17:00 UTC

Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place

MHMarcus Halloran · Politics & Elections Editor Resolves Oct 4, 2026Total volume $8.0M1 platforms

Price history

Implied probability over time
Outcome
Side
Platforms (max 3)
Polymarket
72%77%83%4 Jul6 Jul7 Jul8 Jul10 Jul11 Jul

Where to back Flávio Bolsonaro

Every independent platform that prices this outcome, best price after fees first. The buttons are affiliate links — we may earn a commission if you sign up, and it never changes the odds you see or what you pay.

1
Polymarket5.0Best odds
The largest on-chain prediction market
Flávio Bolsonaro77%no entry fee
Volume$158K
Min · feesNone · No trading
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Ranked by the effective price after each platform's own entry fee. Fees shown are each platform's own and may change — we don't set or control them. Betting exchanges (e.g. Matchbook, Smarkets) instead charge commission on winnings, so they stay at their raw price here.

Implied probability by platform

Lowest raw implied price per outcome in gold · click a row
OutcomePolymarket5.0
Flávio Bolsonaro77%
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva61%
Renan Santos11%
Fernando Haddad1%
Romeu Zema1%
Ronaldo Caiado2%
Jair Bolsonaro1%
Michelle Bolsonaro1%
Geraldo Alckmin0%
Tarcisio de Freitas0%
Ratinho Júnior0%

These are raw implied probabilities; gold marks the lowest raw price. The Best odds above ranks by the price after each platform's entry fee, so the best place to trade can differ from the lowest raw number here.