PoliticsOddsas of Jul 11, 17:00 UTC
What will be the balance of power in Congress after the 2026 midterms?
Price history
Implied probability over timeOutcome
Side
Platforms (max 3)
PolymarketSmarkets
Where to back Democratic House, Republican Senate
Every independent platform that prices this outcome, best price after fees first. The buttons are affiliate links — we may earn a commission if you sign up, and it never changes the odds you see or what you pay.
Democratic House, Republican Senate37%no entry fee · commission on winnings
Volume—
Min · fees£10 · 2% commission
Democratic House, Republican Senate41%no entry fee
Volume$1.6M
Min · feesNone · No trading
Ranked by the effective price after each platform's own entry fee. Fees shown are each platform's own and may change — we don't set or control them. Betting exchanges (e.g. Matchbook, Smarkets) instead charge commission on winnings, so they stay at their raw price here.
Implied probability by platform
Lowest raw implied price per outcome in gold · click a row| Outcome | Polymarket | Smarkets |
|---|---|---|
| Democratic House, Republican Senate | 41% | 37% |
| Democratic House and Senate | 45% | 42% |
| Republican House and Senate | 14% | 19% |
These are raw implied probabilities; gold marks the lowest raw price. The Best odds above ranks by the price after each platform's entry fee, so the best place to trade can differ from the lowest raw number here.