PoliticsOddsas of Jul 14, 02:00 UTC

California Governor winner?

MHMarcus Halloran · Politics & Elections Editor Resolves Nov 4, 2026Total volume $4.8M3 platforms

Price history

Implied probability over time

Outcome

Side

Platforms (max 3)

PolymarketPredictIt

Where to back Xavier Becerra

Every independent platform that prices this outcome, best price after fees first. The buttons are affiliate links — we may earn a commission if you sign up, and it never changes the odds you see or what you pay.

PredictIt3.5Best odds

US political prediction market

Xavier Becerra92%no entry fee · withdrawal/profit fee

Volume—

Min · feesNone · 5% on

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Gemini4.6

Event markets from the Gemini exchange

Xavier Becerraafter fees93%93% price + 0.3% entry fee

Volume$73K

Min · feesNone · Per-contract trading

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Polymarket5.0

The largest on-chain prediction market

Xavier Becerra94%no entry fee

Volume$1.7M

Min · feesNone · No trading

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Ranked by the effective price after each platform's own entry fee. Fees shown are each platform's own and may change — we don't set or control them. Betting exchanges (e.g. Matchbook, Smarkets) instead charge commission on winnings, so they stay at their raw price here.

Implied probability by platform

Lowest raw implied price per outcome in gold · click a row

Outcome	Gemini4.6	Polymarket5.0	PredictIt3.5
Xavier Becerra	93%	94%	92%
Steve Hilton	8%	7%	8%
Toni Atkins	—	0%	1%
Rick Caruso	—	0%	1%
Eric Swalwell	—	0%	1%
Eleni Kounalakis	—	0%	1%
Antonio Villaraigosa	—	0%	1%
Katie Porter	—	0%	1%
Alex Padilla	—	0%	1%
Tom Steyer	—	0%	1%
Chad Bianco	—	0%	1%

These are raw implied probabilities; gold marks the lowest raw price. The Best odds above ranks by the price after each platform's entry fee, so the best place to trade can differ from the lowest raw number here.