PoliticsOddsas of Jul 14, 03:00 UTC

US Presidential Election 2028

MHMarcus Halloran · Politics & Elections Editor Resolves Nov 7, 2028Total volume $37.4M3 platforms

Price history

Implied probability over time

Outcome

Side

Platforms (max 3)

KalshiPolymarketSmarkets

Where to back JD Vance

Every independent platform that prices this outcome, best price after fees first. The buttons are affiliate links — we may earn a commission if you sign up, and it never changes the odds you see or what you pay.

Kalshi4.9Best odds

The first CFTC-regulated US event exchange

JD Vanceafter fees17%16% price + 0.9% entry fee

Volume$3.2M

Min · feesNone · Per-contract trading

Trade

Smarkets4.5

Low-commission UK exchange

JD Vance18%no entry fee · commission on winnings

Volume—

Min · fees£10 · 2% commission

Trade

Polymarket5.0

The largest on-chain prediction market

JD Vance20%no entry fee

Volume$14.6M

Min · feesNone · No trading

Trade

Ranked by the effective price after each platform's own entry fee. Fees shown are each platform's own and may change — we don't set or control them. Betting exchanges (e.g. Matchbook, Smarkets) instead charge commission on winnings, so they stay at their raw price here.

Implied probability by platform

Lowest raw implied price per outcome in gold · click a row

Outcome	Kalshi4.9	Polymarket5.0	Smarkets4.5
JD Vance	16%	20%	18%
Gavin Newsom	12%	12%	14%
Marco Rubio	17%	14%	11%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez	8%	8%	10%
Jon Ossoff	10%	7%	6%
Donald Trump	2%	1%	—
Ron DeSantis	5%	2%	2%
JB Pritzker	1%	—	1%
Andy Beshear	2%	1%	—
Tulsi Gabbard	—	1%	1%
Kamala Harris	5%	5%	3%
Pete Buttigieg	3%	2%	3%
Tucker Carlson	2%	2%	4%
Thomas Massie	1%	1%	2%
Josh Shapiro	3%	3%	2%
Donald Trump Jr.	1%	1%	2%
James Talarico	1%	1%	—
Wes Moore	1%	1%	—

These are raw implied probabilities; gold marks the lowest raw price. The Best odds above ranks by the price after each platform's entry fee, so the best place to trade can differ from the lowest raw number here.