PoliticsOddsas of Jul 14, 01:00 UTC

UK - Next Prime Minister - Prime Minister after Keir Starmer

MHMarcus Halloran · Politics & Elections Editor Resolves Aug 2, 2029Total volume €34K3 platforms

Price history

Implied probability over time

Outcome

Side

Platforms (max 3)

KalshiSmarkets

Where to back Andy Burnham

Every independent platform that prices this outcome, best price after fees first. The buttons are affiliate links — we may earn a commission if you sign up, and it never changes the odds you see or what you pay.

Kalshi4.9Best odds

The first CFTC-regulated US event exchange

Andy Burnhamafter fees99%99% price + 0.1% entry fee

Volume$255K

Min · feesNone · Per-contract trading

Trade

Smarkets4.5

Low-commission UK exchange

Andy Burnham99%no entry fee · commission on winnings

Volume—

Min · fees£10 · 2% commission

Trade

Ranked by the effective price after each platform's own entry fee. Fees shown are each platform's own and may change — we don't set or control them. Betting exchanges (e.g. Matchbook, Smarkets) instead charge commission on winnings, so they stay at their raw price here.

Implied probability by platform

Lowest raw implied price per outcome in gold · click a row

Outcome	Kalshi4.9	MMatchbook4.5	Smarkets4.5
Andy Burnham	99%	—	99%
Sadiq Khan	—	7%	0%
Rupert Lowe	1%	—	3%
Robert Jenrick	0%	—	2%
Shabana Mahmood	2%	—	1%
Kemi Badenoch	1%	—	1%
Rachel Reeves	1%	—	1%
Lucy Powell	0%	—	1%
Darren Jones	1%	1%	0%
Yvette Cooper	1%	—	1%
Nigel Farage	0%	1%	—
David Lammy	0%	0%	0%
James Cleverly	0%	—	0%
Ed Miliband	1%	—	0%
Ed Davey	0%	0%	—
Boris Johnson	0%	—	0%
Bridget Phillipson	0%	0%	—

These are raw implied probabilities; gold marks the lowest raw price. The Best odds above ranks by the price after each platform's entry fee, so the best place to trade can differ from the lowest raw number here.