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PoliticsOddsas of Aug 29, 15:00 UTC

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028

MHMarcus Halloran · Politics & Elections Editor Resolves Nov 8, 2028Total volume —3 platforms

Price history

Implied probability over time
Outcome
Side
Platforms (max 3)
LimitlessPolymarketSmarkets
23%36%50%22 Aug24 Aug25 Aug26 Aug28 Aug29 Aug

Where to back J.D. Vance

Every independent platform that prices this outcome, best price after fees first. The buttons are affiliate links. We may earn a commission if you sign up, and it never changes the odds you see or what you pay.

1
Limitless4.4Best odds
On-chain markets on Base
J.D. Vance24%no entry fee
Volume$397
Min · feesNone · No platform
Trade
2
Smarkets4.5
Low-commission UK exchange
J.D. Vance42%no entry fee · commission on winnings
Volume—
Min · fees£10 · 2% commission
Trade
3
Polymarket5.0
The largest on-chain prediction market
J.D. Vance49%no entry fee
Volume$15.4M
Min · feesNone · No trading
Trade

Ranked by the effective price after each platform's own entry fee. Fees shown are each platform's own and may change. We don't set or control them. Betting exchanges (e.g. Matchbook, Smarkets) instead charge commission on winnings, so they stay at their raw price here.

Implied probability by platform

Lowest raw implied price per outcome in gold · click a row
OutcomeLimitless4.4Polymarket5.0Smarkets4.5
J.D. Vance24%49%42%
Marco Rubio15%15%26%
Ron DeSantis3%3%4%
Tucker Carlson3%3%7%
Ivanka Trump—1%2%
Donald Trump2%2%—
Donald Trump Jr.2%2%3%
Thomas Massie—1%2%
Ted Cruz1%1%1%
Marjorie Taylor Greene—0%1%
Glenn Youngkin—1%1%
Brian Kemp—0%0%
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.—0%0%
Greg Abbott—1%0%

These are raw implied probabilities; gold marks the lowest raw price. The Best odds above ranks by the price after each platform's entry fee, so the best place to trade can differ from the lowest raw number here.

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