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PoliticsOddsas of Aug 29, 15:00 UTC

Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028

MHMarcus Halloran · Politics & Elections Editor Resolves Nov 8, 2028Total volume —3 platforms

Price history

Implied probability over time
Outcome
Side
Platforms (max 3)
LimitlessPolymarketSmarkets
17%32%47%22 Aug24 Aug25 Aug26 Aug28 Aug29 Aug

Where to back Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

Every independent platform that prices this outcome, best price after fees first. The buttons are affiliate links. We may earn a commission if you sign up, and it never changes the odds you see or what you pay.

1
Polymarket5.0Best odds
The largest on-chain prediction market
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez19%no entry fee
Volume$15.1M
Min · feesNone · No trading
Trade
2
Limitless4.4
On-chain markets on Base
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez19%no entry fee
Volume$743
Min · feesNone · No platform
Trade
3
Smarkets4.5
Low-commission UK exchange
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez20%no entry fee · commission on winnings
Volume—
Min · fees£10 · 2% commission
Trade

Ranked by the effective price after each platform's own entry fee. Fees shown are each platform's own and may change. We don't set or control them. Betting exchanges (e.g. Matchbook, Smarkets) instead charge commission on winnings, so they stay at their raw price here.

Implied probability by platform

Lowest raw implied price per outcome in gold · click a row
OutcomeLimitless4.4Polymarket5.0Smarkets4.5
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez19%19%20%
Gavin Newsom14%14%19%
Kamala Harris8%8%7%
Jon Ossoff—16%15%
Pete Buttigieg6%6%6%
Josh Shapiro5%5%3%
Andy Beshear2%2%7%
J.B. Pritzker—1%5%
Gretchen Whitmer—1%5%
Mark Kelly—3%3%
Wes Moore—1%3%
Ro Khanna—2%2%
Michelle Obama—1%1%
Rahm Emanuel—2%1%

These are raw implied probabilities; gold marks the lowest raw price. The Best odds above ranks by the price after each platform's entry fee, so the best place to trade can differ from the lowest raw number here.

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