PoliticsOddsas of Jul 14, 05:00 UTC

Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place

MHMarcus Halloran · Politics & Elections Editor Resolves Oct 4, 2026Total volume $10.4M2 platforms

Price history

Implied probability over time

Outcome

Side

Platforms (max 3)

KalshiPolymarket

Where to back Flávio Bolsonaro

Every independent platform that prices this outcome, best price after fees first. The buttons are affiliate links — we may earn a commission if you sign up, and it never changes the odds you see or what you pay.

Kalshi4.9Best odds

The first CFTC-regulated US event exchange

Flávio Bolsonaroafter fees74%73% price + 1.4% entry fee

Volume$17K

Min · feesNone · Per-contract trading

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Polymarket5.0

The largest on-chain prediction market

Flávio Bolsonaro84%no entry fee

Volume$175K

Min · feesNone · No trading

Trade

Ranked by the effective price after each platform's own entry fee. Fees shown are each platform's own and may change — we don't set or control them. Betting exchanges (e.g. Matchbook, Smarkets) instead charge commission on winnings, so they stay at their raw price here.

Implied probability by platform

Lowest raw implied price per outcome in gold · click a row

Outcome	Kalshi4.9	Polymarket5.0
Flávio Bolsonaro	73%	84%
Renan Santos	15%	10%
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva	8%	6%
Ronaldo Caiado	6%	1%
Romeu Zema	13%	1%
Fernando Haddad	6%	1%
Jair Bolsonaro	5%	0%
Tarcisio de Freitas	4%	0%
Michelle Bolsonaro	4%	0%
Eduardo Bolsonaro	4%	0%
Ratinho Júnior	4%	0%
Aldo Rebelo	4%	0%

These are raw implied probabilities; gold marks the lowest raw price. The Best odds above ranks by the price after each platform's entry fee, so the best place to trade can differ from the lowest raw number here.