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PoliticsOddsas of Jul 14, 02:00 UTC

Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place

MHMarcus Halloran · Politics & Elections Editor Resolves Oct 4, 2026Total volume $8.1M2 platforms

Price history

Implied probability over time
Outcome
Side
Platforms (max 3)
KalshiPolymarket
72%78%84%7 Jul8 Jul9 Jul11 Jul12 Jul14 Jul

Where to back Flávio Bolsonaro

Every independent platform that prices this outcome, best price after fees first. The buttons are affiliate links — we may earn a commission if you sign up, and it never changes the odds you see or what you pay.

1
Kalshi4.9Best odds
The first CFTC-regulated US event exchange
Flávio Bolsonaroafter fees74%73% price + 1.4% entry fee
Volume$17K
Min · feesNone · Per-contract trading
Trade
2
Polymarket5.0
The largest on-chain prediction market
Flávio Bolsonaro84%no entry fee
Volume$175K
Min · feesNone · No trading
Trade

Ranked by the effective price after each platform's own entry fee. Fees shown are each platform's own and may change — we don't set or control them. Betting exchanges (e.g. Matchbook, Smarkets) instead charge commission on winnings, so they stay at their raw price here.

Implied probability by platform

Lowest raw implied price per outcome in gold · click a row
OutcomeKalshi4.9Polymarket5.0
Flávio Bolsonaro73%84%
Renan Santos15%10%
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva8%61%
Fernando Haddad0%1%
Ronaldo Caiado0%1%
Romeu Zema13%1%
Jair Bolsonaro0%0%
Tarcisio de Freitas0%0%
Michelle Bolsonaro0%0%
Eduardo Bolsonaro0%0%
Ratinho Júnior0%0%
Aldo Rebelo0%0%

These are raw implied probabilities; gold marks the lowest raw price. The Best odds above ranks by the price after each platform's entry fee, so the best place to trade can differ from the lowest raw number here.