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SportsOddsas of Jul 15, 04:00 UTC

FIFA World Cup 2026 winner

TBTheo Berkmann · Sports Markets Writer Resolves Jul 20, 2026Total volume $223.4M4 platforms

Price history

Implied probability over time
Outcome
Side
Platforms (max 3)
GeminiKalshiPolymarket
14%37%59%8 Jul9 Jul10 Jul12 Jul13 Jul15 Jul

Where to back Spain

Every independent platform that prices this outcome, best price after fees first. The buttons are affiliate links — we may earn a commission if you sign up, and it never changes the odds you see or what you pay.

1
Limitless4.4Best odds
On-chain markets on Base
Spain58%no entry fee
Volume$12K
Min · feesNone · No platform
Trade
2
Polymarket5.0
The largest on-chain prediction market
Spain58%no entry fee
Volume$115.8M
Min · feesNone · No trading
Trade
3
Gemini4.6
Event markets from the Gemini exchange
Spainafter fees59%57% price + 1.2% entry fee
Volume$2.2M
Min · feesNone · Per-contract trading
Trade
4
Kalshi4.9
The first CFTC-regulated US event exchange
Spainafter fees60%58% price + 1.7% entry fee
Volume$48.1M
Min · feesNone · Per-contract trading
Trade

Ranked by the effective price after each platform's own entry fee. Fees shown are each platform's own and may change — we don't set or control them. Betting exchanges (e.g. Matchbook, Smarkets) instead charge commission on winnings, so they stay at their raw price here.

Implied probability by platform

Lowest raw implied price per outcome in gold · click a row
OutcomeGemini4.6Kalshi4.9Limitless4.4Polymarket5.0
Spain57%58%58%58%
England22%23%23%22%
Argentina21%20%20%19%
France1%0%0%0%
France (Eliminated)————
Japan—0%——
Colombia—0%——
Turkey—0%——
Norway (eliminated)————
Canada—0%——
USA—0%——
Belgium 🇧🇪 —0%——
Belgium (eliminated)————
Egypt—0%——
Columbia ————
Ecuador—0%——
Uruguay (eliminated)————
Macedonia————
Uruguay—0%——
Portugal—0%——
Brazil—0%——
Netherlands (eliminated)————
Norway—0%——
Australia —0%——
USA (eliminated)————
Greece ————
Switzerland—0%——
Germany (Eliminated)————
South Korea—0%——
Netherlands —0%——
Germany—0%——
Croatia (eliminated)————
Canada (eliminated)————
New Zealand—0%——
Croatia—0%——
Ghana—0%——
Austria—0%——
Japan (eliminated)————
Italy————
Cape Verde—0%——
Brazil (elimanted)————
Sweden—0%——
Portugal (eliminated)————
Senegal—0%——
Morocco—0%——
Mexico—0%——
Denmark————
Panama—0%——
Congo DR—1%——
Nigeria————
Paraguay—0%——
Scotland—0%——
Iran—0%——
Saudi Arabia—0%——
Tunisia—0%——
Uzbekistan—0%——
Jordan—0%——
Algeria—0%——
South Africa—0%——
Qatar—0%——
Ivory Coast—0%——
Curacao—0%——
Haiti—0%——
Czechia—1%——
Bosnia and Herzegovina—1%——
Iraq—1%——

These are raw implied probabilities; gold marks the lowest raw price. The Best odds above ranks by the price after each platform's entry fee, so the best place to trade can differ from the lowest raw number here.