SportsOddsas of Jul 15, 06:00 UTC

FIFA World Cup 2026 winner

TBTheo Berkmann · Sports Markets Writer Resolves Jul 20, 2026Total volume $1.3B4 platforms

Price history

Implied probability over time

Outcome

Side

Platforms (max 3)

GeminiKalshiPolymarket

Where to back Spain

Every independent platform that prices this outcome, best price after fees first. The buttons are affiliate links — we may earn a commission if you sign up, and it never changes the odds you see or what you pay.

Limitless4.4Best odds

On-chain markets on Base

Spain58%no entry fee

Volume$12K

Min · feesNone · No platform

Trade

Polymarket5.0

The largest on-chain prediction market

Spain58%no entry fee

Volume$115.9M

Min · feesNone · No trading

Trade

Gemini4.6

Event markets from the Gemini exchange

Spainafter fees59%57% price + 1.2% entry fee

Volume$2.2M

Min · feesNone · Per-contract trading

Trade

Ranked by the effective price after each platform's own entry fee. Fees shown are each platform's own and may change — we don't set or control them. Betting exchanges (e.g. Matchbook, Smarkets) instead charge commission on winnings, so they stay at their raw price here.

Implied probability by platform

Lowest raw implied price per outcome in gold · click a row

Outcome	Gemini4.6	Kalshi4.9	Limitless4.4	Polymarket5.0
Spain	57%	—	58%	58%
England	22%	—	23%	23%
Argentina	21%	—	20%	20%
France	1%	—	0%	0%
France (Eliminated)	—	—	—	—
Japan	—	—	—	—
Colombia	—	—	—	—
Turkey	—	—	—	—
Norway (eliminated)	—	—	—	—
Canada	—	—	—	—
USA	—	—	—	—
Belgium 🇧🇪	—	—	—	—
Belgium (eliminated)	—	—	—	—
Egypt	—	—	—	—
Columbia	—	—	—	—
Ecuador	—	—	—	—
Uruguay (eliminated)	—	—	—	—
Macedonia	—	—	—	—
Uruguay	—	—	—	—
Portugal	—	—	—	—
Brazil	—	—	—	—
Netherlands (eliminated)	—	—	—	—
Norway	—	—	—	—
Australia	—	—	—	—
USA (eliminated)	—	—	—	—
Greece	—	—	—	—
Switzerland	—	—	—	—
Germany (Eliminated)	—	—	—	—
South Korea	—	—	—	—
Netherlands	—	—	—	—
Germany	—	—	—	—
Croatia (eliminated)	—	—	—	—
Canada (eliminated)	—	—	—	—
New Zealand	—	—	—	—
Croatia	—	—	—	—
Ghana	—	—	—	—
Austria	—	—	—	—
Japan (eliminated)	—	—	—	—
Italy	—	—	—	—
Cape Verde	—	—	—	—
Brazil (elimanted)	—	—	—	—
Sweden	—	—	—	—
Portugal (eliminated)	—	—	—	—
Senegal	—	—	—	—
Morocco	—	—	—	—
Mexico	—	—	—	—
Denmark	—	—	—	—
Panama	—	—	—	—
Congo DR	—	—	—	—
Nigeria	—	—	—	—
Paraguay	—	—	—	—
Scotland	—	—	—	—
Iran	—	—	—	—
Saudi Arabia	—	—	—	—
Tunisia	—	—	—	—
Uzbekistan	—	—	—	—
Jordan	—	—	—	—
Algeria	—	—	—	—
South Africa	—	—	—	—
Qatar	—	—	—	—
Ivory Coast	—	—	—	—
Curacao	—	—	—	—
Haiti	—	—	—	—
Czechia	—	—	—	—
Bosnia and Herzegovina	—	—	—	—
Iraq	—	—	—	—

These are raw implied probabilities; gold marks the lowest raw price. The Best odds above ranks by the price after each platform's entry fee, so the best place to trade can differ from the lowest raw number here.