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PoliticsOddsas of Aug 29, 18:00 UTC

Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place

MHMarcus Halloran · Politics & Elections Editor Resolves Oct 4, 2026Total volume $14.1M2 platforms

Price history

Implied probability over time
Outcome
Side
Platforms (max 3)
KalshiPolymarket
3%8%13%22 Aug24 Aug25 Aug26 Aug28 Aug29 Aug

Where to back Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva

Every independent platform that prices this outcome, best price after fees first. The buttons are affiliate links. We may earn a commission if you sign up, and it never changes the odds you see or what you pay.

1
Kalshi4.9Best odds
The first CFTC-regulated US event exchange
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silvaafter fees11%10% price + 0.6% entry fee
Volume$17K
Min · feesNone · Per-contract trading
Trade
2
Polymarket5.0Conflicting markets
The largest on-chain prediction market
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva56%no entry fee
Volume$332K
Min · feesNone · No trading
Trade

Ranked by the effective price after each platform's own entry fee. Fees shown are each platform's own and may change. We don't set or control them. Betting exchanges (e.g. Matchbook, Smarkets) instead charge commission on winnings, so they stay at their raw price here.

Implied probability by platform

Lowest raw implied price per outcome in gold · click a row
OutcomeKalshi4.9Polymarket5.0
Flávio Bolsonaro85%39%⁠⚠
Romeu Zema13%0%
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva10%56%⁠⚠
Renan Santos6%2%
Fernando Haddad4%0%
Jair Bolsonaro4%0%
Ronaldo Caiado4%0%
Aldo Rebelo3%0%
Eduardo Bolsonaro3%0%
Michelle Bolsonaro3%0%
Ratinho Júnior3%0%
Tarcísio de Freitas3%0%

These are raw implied probabilities; gold marks the lowest raw price. The Best odds above ranks by the price after each platform's entry fee, so the best place to trade can differ from the lowest raw number here.

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