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PoliticsOddsas of Aug 29, 18:00 UTC

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028

MHMarcus Halloran · Politics & Elections Editor Resolves Nov 8, 2028Total volume —3 platforms

Price history

Implied probability over time
Outcome
Side
Platforms (max 3)
KalshiLimitlessPolymarket
23%36%50%22 Aug24 Aug25 Aug26 Aug28 Aug29 Aug

Where to back J.D. Vance

Every independent platform that prices this outcome, best price after fees first. The buttons are affiliate links. We may earn a commission if you sign up, and it never changes the odds you see or what you pay.

1
Limitless4.4Best odds
On-chain markets on Base
J.D. Vance24%no entry fee
Volume$397
Min · feesNone · No platform
Trade
2
Kalshi4.9
The first CFTC-regulated US event exchange
J.D. Vanceafter fees46%44% price + 1.7% entry fee
Volume$4.1M
Min · feesNone · Per-contract trading
Trade
3
Polymarket5.0
The largest on-chain prediction market
J.D. Vance49%no entry fee
Volume$15.4M
Min · feesNone · No trading
Trade

Ranked by the effective price after each platform's own entry fee. Fees shown are each platform's own and may change. We don't set or control them. Betting exchanges (e.g. Matchbook, Smarkets) instead charge commission on winnings, so they stay at their raw price here.

Implied probability by platform

Lowest raw implied price per outcome in gold · click a row
OutcomeKalshi4.9Limitless4.4Polymarket5.0
J.D. Vance44%24%49%
Marco Rubio19%17%17%
Tucker Carlson4%3%3%
Ron DeSantis5%3%3%
Ivanka Trump1%—1%
Donald Trump2%2%2%
Donald Trump Jr.4%2%2%
Thomas Massie1%—1%
Ted Cruz2%1%1%
Marjorie Taylor Greene1%—0%
Glenn Youngkin1%—1%
Brian Kemp1%—0%
Sarah Huckabee Sanders1%—1%

These are raw implied probabilities; gold marks the lowest raw price. The Best odds above ranks by the price after each platform's entry fee, so the best place to trade can differ from the lowest raw number here.

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