PoliticsOddsas of Jul 14, 02:00 UTC

US Presidential Election 2028

MHMarcus Halloran · Politics & Elections Editor Resolves Nov 7, 2028Total volume €9K3 platforms

Price history

Implied probability over time

Outcome

Side

Platforms (max 3)

KalshiMatchbookPolymarket

Where to back JD Vance

Every independent platform that prices this outcome, best price after fees first. The buttons are affiliate links — we may earn a commission if you sign up, and it never changes the odds you see or what you pay.

Matchbook4.5Best odds

Low-commission betting exchange

JD Vance18%no entry fee · commission on winnings

Volume€9K

Min · fees£10 · 2% commission

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Kalshi4.9

The first CFTC-regulated US event exchange

JD Vanceafter fees19%18% price + 1.0% entry fee

Volume$3.2M

Min · feesNone · Per-contract trading

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Polymarket5.0

The largest on-chain prediction market

JD Vance20%no entry fee

Volume$14.6M

Min · feesNone · No trading

Trade

Ranked by the effective price after each platform's own entry fee. Fees shown are each platform's own and may change — we don't set or control them. Betting exchanges (e.g. Matchbook, Smarkets) instead charge commission on winnings, so they stay at their raw price here.

Implied probability by platform

Lowest raw implied price per outcome in gold · click a row

Outcome	Kalshi4.9	MMatchbook4.5	Polymarket5.0
JD Vance	18%	18%	20%
Gavin Newsom	11%	14%	12%
Marco Rubio	17%	12%	14%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez	8%	8%	8%
Jon Ossoff	10%	7%	7%
Donald Trump	2%	—	1%
Mark Kelly	2%	5%	—
Andy Beshear	2%	—	1%
Ron DeSantis	5%	3%	2%
Tucker Carlson	2%	3%	2%
Pete Buttigieg	3%	3%	2%
Kamala Harris	5%	3%	5%
Thomas Massie	1%	3%	1%
Josh Shapiro	3%	2%	3%
Donald Trump Jr.	1%	—	1%
Jamie Dimon	—	2%	1%
Wes Moore	1%	—	1%
James Talarico	1%	—	1%
Greg Abbott	—	2%	1%

These are raw implied probabilities; gold marks the lowest raw price. The Best odds above ranks by the price after each platform's entry fee, so the best place to trade can differ from the lowest raw number here.