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PoliticsOddsas of Jul 14, 03:00 UTC

Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election Winner

MHMarcus Halloran · Politics & Elections Editor Resolves Sep 20, 2026Total volume —2 platforms

Price history

Implied probability over time
Outcome
Side
Platforms (max 3)
KalshiPolymarket
15%50%85%7 Jul8 Jul9 Jul11 Jul12 Jul14 Jul

Where to back AfD

Every independent platform that prices this outcome, best price after fees first. The buttons are affiliate links — we may earn a commission if you sign up, and it never changes the odds you see or what you pay.

1
Polymarket5.0Best odds
The largest on-chain prediction market
AfD21%no entry fee
Volume$2.2M
Min · feesNone · No trading
Trade
2
Kalshi4.9
The first CFTC-regulated US event exchange
AfDafter fees87%86% price + 0.8% entry fee
Volume$5K
Min · feesNone · Per-contract trading
Trade

Ranked by the effective price after each platform's own entry fee. Fees shown are each platform's own and may change — we don't set or control them. Betting exchanges (e.g. Matchbook, Smarkets) instead charge commission on winnings, so they stay at their raw price here.

Implied probability by platform

Lowest raw implied price per outcome in gold · click a row
OutcomeKalshi4.9Polymarket5.0
AfD86%21%
SPD11%5%
CDU1%0%
Grüne1%0%
FDP1%0%
BSW1%0%

These are raw implied probabilities; gold marks the lowest raw price. The Best odds above ranks by the price after each platform's entry fee, so the best place to trade can differ from the lowest raw number here.