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EconomicsOddsas of Aug 29, 15:00 UTC

Fed decision in September

DWDiane Whitfield · Macro & Rates Editor Resolves Sep 16, 2026Total volume $26.7M2 platforms

Price history

Implied probability over time
Outcome
Side
Platforms (max 3)
Polymarket
47%59%70%22 Aug24 Aug25 Aug26 Aug28 Aug29 Aug

Where to back No change

Every independent platform that prices this outcome, best price after fees first. The buttons are affiliate links. We may earn a commission if you sign up, and it never changes the odds you see or what you pay.

1
Pascal4.2Best odds
Non-custodial order-book prediction markets on Solana
No change55%no entry fee
Volume$37K
Min · feesNone · Order-book taker
Trade
2
Polymarket5.0
The largest on-chain prediction market
No change56%no entry fee
Volume$14.8M
Min · feesNone · No trading
Trade

Ranked by the effective price after each platform's own entry fee. Fees shown are each platform's own and may change. We don't set or control them. Betting exchanges (e.g. Matchbook, Smarkets) instead charge commission on winnings, so they stay at their raw price here.

Implied probability by platform

Lowest raw implied price per outcome in gold · click a row
OutcomePascal4.2Polymarket5.0
No change55%56%
Rate cut1%1%
Rate hike44%44%

These are raw implied probabilities; gold marks the lowest raw price. The Best odds above ranks by the price after each platform's entry fee, so the best place to trade can differ from the lowest raw number here.

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