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SportsOddsas of Jul 15, 04:00 UTC

2026 FIFA World Cup Golden Boot winner

Price history

Implied probability over time
Outcome
Side
Platforms (max 3)
LimitlessPolymarket
18%41%64%8 Jul9 Jul10 Jul12 Jul13 Jul15 Jul

Where to back Lionel Messi

Every independent platform that prices this outcome, best price after fees first. The buttons are affiliate links — we may earn a commission if you sign up, and it never changes the odds you see or what you pay.

1
Polymarket5.0Best odds
The largest on-chain prediction market
Lionel Messi55%no entry fee
Volume$3.4M
Min · feesNone · No trading
2
Limitless4.4
On-chain markets on Base
Lionel Messi63%no entry fee
Volume$25K
Min · feesNone · No platform

Ranked by the effective price after each platform's own entry fee. Fees shown are each platform's own and may change — we don't set or control them. Betting exchanges (e.g. Matchbook, Smarkets) instead charge commission on winnings, so they stay at their raw price here.

Implied probability by platform

Lowest raw implied price per outcome in gold · click a row
OutcomeLimitless4.4Polymarket5.0
Lionel Messi63%55%
Kylian Mbappe42%34%
Harry Kane41%8%
Jude Bellingham5%5%
Erling Haaland3%
Mikel Oyarzabal1%0%
Federico Valverde1%
Ousmane Dembele1%0%
Noah Okafor
Ferran Torres0%
Cristiano Ronaldo1%
Julian Alvarez0%
Dani Olmo0%
Deniz Undav
Lautaro Martinez0%
Marcus Thuram0%
Mohamed Salah
Cody Gakpo
Vinicius Junior0%
Michael Olise0%0%
Folarin Balogun
Desire Doue0%
Lamine Yamal0%0%
Raphinha
Bradley Barcola0%
Rodrygo
Kai Havertz
Amad Diallo
Igor Thiago
Bukayo Saka0%
Edin Džeko
Pedri0%
Luis Diaz
Viktor Gyökeres
Scott McTominay
Ivan Perišić
Romelu Lukaku
Heung-Min Son
Rafael Leao
Andrej Kramarić

These are raw implied probabilities; gold marks the lowest raw price. The Best odds above ranks by the price after each platform's entry fee, so the best place to trade can differ from the lowest raw number here.