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PoliticsOddsas of Aug 29, 21:00 UTC

Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory

MHMarcus Halloran · Politics & Elections Editor Resolves Oct 4, 2026Total volume $217K3 platforms

Price history

Implied probability over time
Outcome
Side
Platforms (max 3)
KalshiLimitlessPolymarket
36%43%49%22 Aug24 Aug25 Aug27 Aug28 Aug29 Aug

Where to back Lula da Silva 5-10%

Every independent platform that prices this outcome, best price after fees first. The buttons are affiliate links. We may earn a commission if you sign up, and it never changes the odds you see or what you pay.

1
Limitless4.4Best odds
On-chain markets on Base
Lula da Silva 5-10%44%no entry fee
Volume$0
Min · feesNone · No platform
Trade
2
Polymarket5.0
The largest on-chain prediction market
Lula da Silva 5-10%45%no entry fee
Volume$26K
Min · feesNone · No trading
Trade
3
Kalshi4.9
The first CFTC-regulated US event exchange
Lula da Silva 5-10%after fees46%44% price + 1.7% entry fee
Volume$3K
Min · feesNone · Per-contract trading
Trade

Ranked by the effective price after each platform's own entry fee. Fees shown are each platform's own and may change. We don't set or control them. Betting exchanges (e.g. Matchbook, Smarkets) instead charge commission on winnings, so they stay at their raw price here.

Implied probability by platform

Lowest raw implied price per outcome in gold · click a row
OutcomeKalshi4.9Limitless4.4Polymarket5.0
Lula da Silva 5-10%44%44%45%
Lula da Silva <5%—32%33%
Flávio Bolsonaro <5%—7%7%
Lula da Silva 10-15%15%5%5%
Lula da Silva 15%+5%5%5%
Flávio Bolsonaro 10%+—4%3%
Flávio Bolsonaro 5-10%6%3%2%
Renan Santos Victory—1%0%
Tarcisio de Freitas Victory—1%0%
Ratinho Júnior Victory—1%0%

These are raw implied probabilities; gold marks the lowest raw price. The Best odds above ranks by the price after each platform's entry fee, so the best place to trade can differ from the lowest raw number here.

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