1. Shop for the best price
The simplest edge: never take the first price. The same contract trades at different prices across venues, and consistently buying the cheapest is a structural advantage that compounds.
2. Specialize
You don’t need an opinion on everything. Pick a domain you genuinely follow — a league, a policy area — and only trade where your knowledge beats the average participant.
3. Respect calibration
Track your predictions. If the things you call 70% happen 70% of the time, you’re calibrated and can size up. If not, the lesson is cheap on play-money venues first.