Predictions Network
Fundamentals · 5 min read

Fiat vs crypto vs play money

The three kinds of platform — regulated cash exchanges, crypto-native books, and free forecasting sites — and who each is for.

Real-money, fiat-settled

Regulated exchanges like Kalshi take deposits in dollars and hold client funds in segregated accounts. You get legal protection and bank-rail withdrawals, at the cost of KYC and higher minimums.

Real-moneyfiatKalshi · Gemini
USD deposits, regulated, KYC
Crypto-nativePolymarket · Limitless
Stablecoins on-chain, global, a wallet
Play-moneyManifold
Virtual currency, zero risk, learn first
Three families of venue — pick by how much protection, access and risk you want.

Crypto-native

Venues like Polymarket and ForeGate settle in stablecoins on-chain. They’re globally accessible with low minimums and deep liquidity, but require a wallet and carry no traditional regulator.

Play money & forecasting

Manifold and Metaculus use virtual currency or pure reputation. No cash is at stake — they’re the best risk-free way to learn the mechanics and sharpen calibration before trading real money.

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