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EconomicsOddsas of Aug 31

Fed decision in September

DWDiane Whitfield · Macro & Rates Editor Resolves Sep 16, 2026Total volume $27.8M2 platforms

Price history

Implied probability over time
Outcome
Side
Platforms (max 3)
Polymarket
28%40%52%24 Aug25 Aug26 Aug28 Aug29 Aug31 Aug

Where to back Rate hike

Every independent platform that prices this outcome, best price after fees first. The buttons are affiliate links. We may earn a commission if you sign up, and it never changes the odds you see or what you pay.

1
Polymarket5.0Best odds
The largest on-chain prediction market
Rate hike47%no entry fee
Volume$23.7M
Min · feesNone · No trading
Trade
2
Pascal4.2
Non-custodial order-book prediction markets on Solana
Rate hike47%no entry fee
Volume$19K
Min · feesNone · Order-book taker
Trade

Ranked by the effective price after each platform's own entry fee. Fees shown are each platform's own and may change. We don't set or control them. Betting exchanges (e.g. Matchbook, Smarkets) instead charge commission on winnings, so they stay at their raw price here.

Implied probability by platform

Lowest tradable raw price per outcome in gold · click a row
OutcomePascal4.2Polymarket5.0
No change47%47%
Rate cut1%1%
Rate hike47%47%

These are raw implied probabilities; gold marks the lowest raw price we can confirm is tradable. A price on a book too wide to trade is shown, but never marked. The Best odds above ranks by the price after each platform's entry fee, so the best place to trade can differ from the lowest raw number here.

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