PoliticsOddsas of Aug 29, 18:00 UTC
Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31?
Price history
Implied probability over timeOutcome
Side
Platforms (max 3)
LimitlessPolymarket
Where to back Steve Witkoff
Every independent platform that prices this outcome, best price after fees first. The buttons are affiliate links. We may earn a commission if you sign up, and it never changes the odds you see or what you pay.
Steve Witkoff35%no entry fee
Volume$0
Min · feesNone · No platform
Steve Witkoff36%no entry fee
Volume$20K
Min · feesNone · No trading
Ranked by the effective price after each platform's own entry fee. Fees shown are each platform's own and may change. We don't set or control them. Betting exchanges (e.g. Matchbook, Smarkets) instead charge commission on winnings, so they stay at their raw price here.
Implied probability by platform
Lowest raw implied price per outcome in gold · click a row| Outcome | Limitless | Polymarket |
|---|---|---|
| Steve Witkoff | 35% | 36% |
| Abbas Araghchi | 34% | 35% |
| Jared Kushner | 33% | 34% |
| Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf | 32% | 33% |
| J.D. Vance | 30% | 31% |
These are raw implied probabilities; gold marks the lowest raw price. The Best odds above ranks by the price after each platform's entry fee, so the best place to trade can differ from the lowest raw number here.