How to Get Started with Prediction Markets

Getting started with prediction markets is easier than it looks. This guide walks you through everything from choosing a platform to placing your first trade.

Step 1: Choose a Platform

The right platform depends on where you live and whether you want to use real money:

• US residents: Use Kalshi (fully regulated, USD deposits)
• Outside the US: Use Polymarket (0% fees, highest liquidity)
• Want to practice free: Use Manifold Markets (play money, no risk)

Step 2: Create an Account

Most platforms require:

• An email address
• Identity verification (KYC) — usually a government ID photo
• A phone number for 2FA

KYC takes 1–5 minutes on most platforms. Kalshi verifies quickly. Polymarket requires connecting a crypto wallet.

Step 3: Fund Your Account

For Kalshi (USD): Link your bank account via ACH transfer. Deposits typically arrive in 1–3 business days. Instant deposits available via debit card.

For Polymarket (crypto): You need USDC in a wallet. Buy USDC on Coinbase or Kraken, then transfer to your Polymarket wallet. Takes about 10–15 minutes the first time.

For Manifold: No funding needed — you get free play money when you sign up.

Step 4: Find a Market

Browse by category (Politics, Economics, Crypto, Sports) or search for a specific topic. Look for markets with:

• High liquidity (tight bid/ask spread)
• Clear resolution criteria
• A topic you have an informed view on

Step 5: Place Your First Trade

Decide: do you think the event is more or less likely than the current price implies?

• If more likely → buy YES contracts
• If less likely → buy NO contracts (or sell YES)

Start small. Your first few trades are about learning the mechanics, not maximizing profit. Bet no more than you are comfortable losing.

Step 6: Monitor and Exit

You don't have to hold until the event resolves. You can sell your position at any time to lock in profit or cut losses. Markets update continuously as new information emerges.

Key Tips for Beginners

• Start with play money on Manifold to learn without risk
• Trade on topics where you have genuine knowledge or an edge
• Diversify — don't put everything on one outcome
• Check the resolution criteria carefully before trading
• Keep records of your trades to track your calibration over time