Risk Disclaimer

Trading Involves Risk of Loss

Prediction market trading — whether on platforms such as Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair, or any other platform reviewed on this site — involves substantial risk of financial loss. You may lose some or all of the money you invest.

Unlike savings accounts or government bonds, prediction market contracts can expire worthless. Every market has a loser for every winner. Before trading with real money, you should fully understand how prediction markets work and accept the risk of loss.

Not Financial Advice

TopPredictions does not provide financial, investment, or trading advice. Everything published on this site — including platform reviews, ratings, comparisons, guides, probability tools, and market commentary — is for informational and educational purposes only.

Nothing on this site should be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell any contract, or to open or close any position on any platform. We are not registered financial advisers, brokers, or investment managers.

Past Performance Is Not a Guarantee

Historical accuracy of prediction markets, past performance of any trading strategy, or past outcomes of specific markets are not indicative of future results. Market conditions change, and what worked previously may not work in the future.

Leverage and Liquidity Risk

Some prediction market platforms operate automated market makers (AMMs) or liquidity pools. Thinly traded markets may have wide bid-ask spreads, making it difficult to exit positions at favourable prices. Illiquid markets can also be susceptible to price manipulation.

Platform and Counterparty Risk

Prediction market platforms are businesses that can fail, be shut down by regulators, or exit the market. Unregulated platforms in particular carry the risk of loss of funds if the platform ceases operations. Always check a platform's regulatory status before depositing significant funds.

For regulatory information by platform and jurisdiction, see our Regulation & Tax Guide.

Cryptocurrency Risk

Platforms that use cryptocurrency (e.g., USDC, ETH, SOL) carry additional risks including:

• Smart contract bugs or exploits
• Wallet loss if private keys are lost
• Regulatory uncertainty around cryptocurrency
• Stablecoin de-pegging risk (though historically USDC has been stable)

Responsible Trading

We recommend the following practices:

• Never trade with money you cannot afford to lose
• Start with small positions while learning
• Use play-money platforms (Manifold, Metaculus) to practice risk-free before risking real money
• Diversify across multiple markets rather than concentrating in a single outcome
• Set a budget and stick to it
• Seek help if you think you may have a gambling problem — resources are available at NCPG (US) and BeGambleAware (UK)

Seek Professional Advice

Before making significant financial decisions, we strongly encourage you to consult a qualified and licensed financial adviser who understands your personal circumstances, goals, and risk tolerance.