How to Choose the Right Prediction Market Platform
Key factors to consider when picking a prediction market: fees, geography, liquidity, and market variety.
With 18+ prediction market platforms available, choosing the right one can feel overwhelming. This guide breaks down the key factors to help you decide.
1. Geography — Can You Even Use It?
This is the most important filter. Due to regulations:
- US residents: Can only use Kalshi, PredictIt, Manifold, or Metaculus for real-money markets. Polymarket is blocked.
- UK/EU residents: Can use Betfair, Smarkets, Polymarket, and most others. Kalshi is US-only.
- Everyone else: Polymarket and Manifold work globally.
2. Fees — How Much Do You Keep?
Fees vary enormously and have a massive impact on profitability:
- Polymarket: 0% trading fees — the best in the industry
- Smarkets: 2% commission
- Betfair: ~5% commission
- Kalshi: 7% fee on winnings
- PredictIt: 10% on profits + 5% withdrawal fee
A 10% fee means you need to be right significantly more often than average just to break even. Always factor fees into your expected value calculations.
3. Liquidity — Can You Get In and Out?
Liquidity determines how easily you can buy and sell contracts at fair prices. Low liquidity means wide bid/ask spreads — you pay more to enter and get less when you exit.
Polymarket has by far the highest liquidity (~$1B+ monthly volume). Kalshi is growing rapidly. Smaller platforms can have very thin markets on niche topics.
4. Market Variety — Do They Cover What You Care About?
- Politics: Polymarket, Kalshi, PredictIt, Manifold
- Economics: Kalshi (best for macro — inflation, Fed rates), Polymarket
- Sports: Betfair, Smarkets, Polymarket
- Crypto: Polymarket (extensive)
- Science/tech: Metaculus (best for long-horizon forecasting)
- Anything you want: Manifold (anyone can create a market)
5. Real Money vs. Play Money
If you're new to prediction markets, start with a play money platform like Manifold or Metaculus. Practice your forecasting skills, build a track record, and understand the mechanics — then move to real money when you're confident.
6. Regulation — How Safe Is Your Money?
- Fully regulated: Kalshi (CFTC), Betfair (FCA), Smarkets (FCA)
- Semi-regulated: PredictIt (no-action letter)
- Unregulated: Polymarket, Augur (higher platform risk, but non-custodial)
Our Recommendation by User Type
- Complete beginner: Manifold Markets (free, no risk)
- US trader, wants real money: Kalshi
- Non-US trader: Polymarket
- Serious forecaster: Metaculus + one real-money platform
- UK/EU sports bettor: Betfair or Smarkets