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Matteo Arnaldi vs Lorenzo Musetti

TBTheo Berkmann · Sports Markets Writer Resolves Jul 27, 2026Total volume $81K4 platforms

Price history

Implied probability over time
Outcome
Side
Platforms (max 3)
Kalshi
60%61%62%27 Jul

Where to back Lorenzo Musetti

Every independent platform that prices this outcome, best price after fees first. The buttons are affiliate links — we may earn a commission if you sign up, and it never changes the odds you see or what you pay.

1
Matchbook4.5
Low-commission betting exchange
Lorenzo Musetti59%no entry fee · commission on winnings
Volume€747
Min · fees£10 · 2% commission
Market closed
2
Smarkets4.5
Low-commission UK exchange
Lorenzo Musetti60%no entry fee · commission on winnings
Volume—
Min · fees£10 · 2% commission
Market closed
3
Kalshi4.9
The first CFTC-regulated US event exchange
Lorenzo Musettiafter fees63%61% price + 1.7% entry fee
Volume$81K
Min · feesNone · Per-contract trading
Market closed
4
SX Bet4.1
On-chain peer-to-peer sports exchange
Lorenzo Musetti64%no entry fee · commission on winnings
Volume—
Min · feesNone · Small fee
Market closed

Ranked by the effective price after each platform's own entry fee. Fees shown are each platform's own and may change — we don't set or control them. Betting exchanges (e.g. Matchbook, Smarkets) instead charge commission on winnings, so they stay at their raw price here.

Implied probability by platform

Lowest raw implied price per outcome in gold · click a row
OutcomeKalshi4.9Matchbook4.5Smarkets4.5SX Bet4.1
Matteo Arnaldi40%41%40%54%
Lorenzo Musetti61%59%60%64%

These are raw implied probabilities; gold marks the lowest raw price. The Best odds above ranks by the price after each platform's entry fee, so the best place to trade can differ from the lowest raw number here.

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