Kalshi vs PredictIt

Fee Comparison: The Real Cost Difference

PredictIt charges 10% on net profits per market, plus a 5% withdrawal fee on all withdrawals. These two fees compound in ways that are not immediately obvious. If you deposit $200, grow it to $300, then withdraw the $100 profit: you pay $10 in trading fees (10% of the $100 net), then 5% of the total $300 withdrawal, which is another $15. Your $100 gain costs $25 in fees — a 25% effective rate on profits.

Kalshi charges approximately 7% on net winnings, with no withdrawal fees. The same $100 gain would cost $7. That is a meaningful difference for active traders. Over a year of regular trading, the fee gap between the two platforms can compound substantially. PredictIt's fee structure was designed for a research-oriented platform with limited trading volume; Kalshi's is designed for a commercial trading platform.

The one caveat: PredictIt's $850 per-market cap limits your maximum fee exposure on any single position. High-stakes traders who would exceed this limit on Kalshi will face higher absolute fee costs — but Kalshi's lower rates almost always make the math favorable even at higher position sizes.

Regulatory Standing: Full License vs. No-Action Letter

Kalshi holds a Designated Contract Market (DCM) license from the CFTC — the same category as CME Group and other established US derivatives exchanges. This gives it full legal standing to offer event contracts to US residents, with formal regulatory oversight, mandatory fund segregation requirements, and a dispute resolution framework with regulatory backing.

PredictIt operates under a CFTC no-action letter granted in 2014, originally for academic research purposes. A no-action letter means the CFTC has agreed not to pursue enforcement action — it is not affirmative authorization. This narrower legal footing led to a 2022 CFTC announcement that the no-action letter would be withdrawn (it was later stayed, and PredictIt continues to operate as of 2026). The regulatory cloud is real, even if the immediate risk to existing accounts has been limited.

For most traders, the practical consequence is straightforward: Kalshi's regulatory status is more durable. There is no realistic scenario where Kalshi's CFTC license is suddenly revoked. For PredictIt, the history of regulatory uncertainty is a genuine consideration, particularly for traders who plan to hold positions through extended election cycles.

Market Selection: Politics Specialist vs. Broad Platform

PredictIt's strength is depth in US political markets. It has covered US elections since 2012 and has a dedicated community of political forecasters. The historical data going back to the Obama era makes it uniquely valuable for political research and long-term forecasting analysis. If your only interest is US political event contracts with a strong community of politically engaged traders, PredictIt's focused selection is not a weakness.

Kalshi has expanded well beyond politics. The platform now covers Federal Reserve interest rate decisions, economic data releases (CPI, jobs reports), weather events, sports outcomes, and technology milestones — in addition to a comprehensive US political market selection. For traders who want diversification across event categories within a single platform, Kalshi is the clear choice. The platform's regulatory standing also means it can continue expanding into new market categories without the constraints that limit PredictIt's growth.

The practical decision: if you trade US politics exclusively and value historical community context, PredictIt remains a legitimate option. For everything else — lower fees, no position limits, broader markets, and regulatory security — Kalshi is the better choice for 2026 and beyond.