🇺🇸 Best US Prediction Markets

How US Prediction Market Regulation Works

The CFTC (Commodity Futures Trading Commission) is the federal agency that governs prediction markets in the United States. It has two distinct authorization frameworks relevant to traders: Designated Contract Market (DCM) status and no-action letters. These are not the same thing, and the distinction matters for anyone putting real money at stake.

A DCM license — held by Kalshi and Robinhood Predictions — is full federal authorization, equivalent to the status of major commodity exchanges like CME Group. Platforms with DCM status must meet capital requirements, segregate client funds, undergo regular audits, and provide formal dispute resolution. If there is a problem, you have a legal recourse path through CFTC mechanisms.

A CFTC no-action letter — held by PredictIt and the Iowa Electronic Markets — is a narrower authorization. It means the CFTC has agreed not to pursue enforcement action against a specific platform under specific conditions. It is not affirmative approval. The conditions attached to PredictIt's letter (academic research focus, $850 cap per market) illustrate the limitations. If the CFTC decides to withdraw or modify the letter, as it attempted in 2022, the platform's legal status is in question.

For practical purposes: regulated DCM platforms are the safest choice for US residents. No-action letter platforms are legal but operate with less certainty. And any platform not in either category — including Polymarket, the world's largest prediction market by volume — is simply not available to US users.

Kalshi vs PredictIt: Choosing Between the Two Real-Money US Options

For US traders who want to put real money on real events, the practical choice is between Kalshi and PredictIt. Both are legally available. The right choice depends on what you want to trade and how much you expect to trade.

Kalshi wins on almost every measurable dimension: lower fees (7% on winnings vs. PredictIt's 10% on profits plus 5% on withdrawals), no position limits (vs. PredictIt's $850 cap per market), broader market categories (economics, climate, sports — not just politics), and full CFTC DCM designation vs. a no-action letter. For most US traders, Kalshi is the default choice.

PredictIt's case rests on two things: a 12-year track record specifically in US political markets, and a more established community of political forecasters. If you care primarily about US election markets and want to trade alongside a community that has been forecasting elections since 2014, PredictIt remains a viable option — just understand the higher fee costs and position limits before you start.

What US Traders Can and Cannot Trade

US prediction market platforms focus on event contracts: binary YES/NO markets where prices reflect the probability of an outcome. What you can trade depends on the platform. Kalshi covers the widest US-legal selection: presidential and congressional elections, Federal Reserve interest rate decisions, economic data releases (CPI, unemployment), weather milestones, sports championships, and technology milestones like AI benchmarks.

What US traders cannot access: Polymarket's political and sports markets (blocked for US users), Betfair's sports exchange (UK/EU only), and most crypto-based global prediction markets. Free platforms like Manifold Markets and Metaculus are globally available including the US, but use play money with no financial stakes.

The gap between what US traders can access and what global traders can access is real — but it is narrowing. Kalshi has expanded its market categories significantly since 2022, and Robinhood Predictions brings a zero-fee regulated option for existing Robinhood users. The US prediction market landscape in 2026 is meaningfully better than it was two years ago.