Variational FDV above ___ one day after launch?
Price history
Implied probability over timeWhere to back $200M
Every independent platform that prices this outcome, best price after fees first. The buttons are affiliate links. We may earn a commission if you sign up, and it never changes the odds you see or what you pay.
Ranked by the effective price after each platform's own entry fee. Fees shown are each platform's own and may change. We don't set or control them. Betting exchanges (e.g. Matchbook, Smarkets) instead charge commission on winnings, so they stay at their raw price here.
Implied probability by platform
Lowest tradable raw price per outcome in gold · click a row| Outcome | PPascal | Polymarket |
|---|---|---|
| $200M | 98% | 98% |
| $100M | 98% | 98% |
| $300M | 97% | 97% |
| $500M | 87% | 88% |
| $800M | 75% | 75% |
| $1B | 60% | 61% |
| $2B | 23% | 24% |
| $3B | 13% | 13% |
| $4B | 6% | 6% |
| $5B | 4% | 4% |
These are raw implied probabilities; gold marks the lowest raw price we can confirm is tradable. A price on a book too wide to trade is shown, but never marked. The Best odds above ranks by the price after each platform's entry fee, so the best place to trade can differ from the lowest raw number here.