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PoliticsOddsas of Jul 11, 17:00 UTC

Who will win the next French presidential election?

MHMarcus Halloran · Politics & Elections Editor Resolves Apr 30, 2027Total volume $5.2M1 platforms

Price history

Implied probability over time
Outcome
Side
Platforms (max 3)
Polymarket
6%18%31%4 Jul6 Jul7 Jul8 Jul10 Jul11 Jul

Where to back Marine Le Pen

Every independent platform that prices this outcome, best price after fees first. The buttons are affiliate links — we may earn a commission if you sign up, and it never changes the odds you see or what you pay.

1
Polymarket5.0Best odds
The largest on-chain prediction market
Marine Le Pen27%no entry fee
Volume$1.4M
Min · feesNone · No trading
Trade

Ranked by the effective price after each platform's own entry fee. Fees shown are each platform's own and may change — we don't set or control them. Betting exchanges (e.g. Matchbook, Smarkets) instead charge commission on winnings, so they stay at their raw price here.

Implied probability by platform

Lowest raw implied price per outcome in gold · click a row
OutcomePolymarket5.0
Marine Le Pen27%
Édouard Philippe27%
Jordan Bardella4%
Bruno Retailleau3%
Gabriel Attal3%
Jean-Luc Mélenchon12%
François Hollande3%
Dominique de Villepin2%
Michel Barnier1%
Ségolène Royal0%
Valérie Pécresse0%

These are raw implied probabilities; gold marks the lowest raw price. The Best odds above ranks by the price after each platform's entry fee, so the best place to trade can differ from the lowest raw number here.